A review of the world zinc Market

  • Detail

Give full play to the potential - review of the world metal zinc market

in recent years, the global supply of metal zinc has changed from surplus to shortage because the consumption growth rate is faster than the output growth rate. In 2004, the world's zinc output was 10.15 million tons, and the zinc consumption was 10.24 million tons. In 2004, there was a gap of 91000 tons for the first time; In 2005, the zinc output is expected to be 10.3 million tons, with a year-on-year increase of 1.5%, and the consumption is expected to be 10.68 million tons, with a year-on-year increase of 4.3%, so that the global zinc consumption gap will reach 340000 tons. Even if there is strategic storage and sales in the United States, the gap is still large. Due to the tight supply of zinc, the global inventory has accelerated to decline. The zinc inventory of the London Metal Exchange at the beginning and end of 2004 was 739800 tons and 629400 tons respectively, a decrease of 15%. The March futures price of zinc on the London Metal Exchange rose from US $1087/ton in the first quarter of 2004 to US $1328/ton in the first quarter of 2005. The tension between supply and demand further intensified in 2005, and the price of zinc continued to rise in 2005. The highest spot settlement price reached US $1430 per ton on March 16, 2005

however, a new economic situation has emerged in the world: more and more people believe that the current economic cycle has passed the high point, economic activities seem to slow down, most metal inventories have increased, and the economic index of most commodity markets is obviously in a bear market, although the apparent value of commodities appears to be high due to the depreciation of the US dollar. If the economic situation continues to develop like this, we will face the downward trend of metal prices, and the short-term rebound in the metal market may not continue. As for the market situation of metallic zinc, it is slightly different from others. On the one hand, the general environment of the world economy determines the general trend of metallic zinc; On the other hand, the following factors have affected the volatility of the market price of metallic zinc and its price

in terms of fundamentals, zinc is the most powerful metal among the base metals this year, with high inventories and full market potential. However, people believe that the peak of zinc price has passed. According to CRU, we will face the following: the market price of zinc, like other metals, will tend to fall

at present, the inventory of zinc continues to decline slowly. At the current rate, even if it decreases for one year, it is larger than the current copper inventory of LME. At present, the supply of zinc concentrate is tight, and the shipment of new zinc ore is also in short supply, with limited growth. The supply of zinc concentrate has become a bottleneck restricting zinc production. Balmat and Kassandra are the only mines with an annual output of more than 30000 tons this year. In addition, teckcominco/Noranda's Zinc Mine in Australia has been closed, with a total of about 190000 tons. However, Teck denied that it was considering restarting the zinc mine in pillbara, Australia

as an important consumer Department of metallic zinc, the supply of galvanized sheet was tight last year, so the number of contract sales this year is high. In addition, the expected price rise of steel last year has increased the inventory of zinc and galvanized sheet. Now steel prices have risen, traders began to sell inventory, western countries' spot market trading is low, and the market is weak

in the past two years, with the rapid growth of galvanized sheet production, China's zinc consumption has also shown a momentum of rapid growth. In 2004, the consumption reached 2.53 million tons, and the output was only 2.52 million tons. China's zinc supply has changed from surplus to shortage, and has changed from a net exporter of zinc to a net importer. In the first quarter of 2005, China's refined zinc production increased only moderately, with an increase of 2.9% according to official materials, indicating that the power shortage affecting zinc production improved in March, and the monthly production capacity increased significantly. However, China's production is also affected by the shortage of zinc concentrate, which is also a worldwide problem. It is guaranteed that the selected samples will not be inconsistent with the standard samples. Since the growth rate of China's production is lower than the growth rate of consumption, China will certainly continue to be a net importer of zinc, which has been proved by the recently published figures

it is reported that China has reduced the export tax rebate of metallic zinc. From May 1, the export tax rebate of zinc was reduced from 13% to 8%. This change was unexpected for Chinese zinc manufacturers, who originally thought it would be reduced completely. In the first quarter of 2005, China exported 37694 tons of refined zinc, a year-on-year decrease of 26.5%, while imports reached 85004 tons, an increase of 63.3%

note: the reprinted content is indicated with the source. The tensile testing machine adopts a full digital, 3-loop (force, deformation, displacement) control system based on neuron self-adaptive PID algorithm. The reprint is for the purpose of transmitting more information, and does not mean to agree with its views or confirm the authenticity of its content

Copyright © 2011 JIN SHI